Morgan Stanley is predicting in an investor note that around 10% of those who own an iPhone 5 or later will buy an Apple Watch, generating first year sales of around 30M – right at the top end of the 10-30M range suggested by other analysts.
While predicting likely sales of a new product category is always a rather shaky undertaking, and sales of competitor smartwatches may not prove a reliable guide, Morgan Stanley thinks there is one clue to how well the Apple Watch might sell: the precedent set by the iPad …
Consensus estimates for first-year iPad sales were 5M, with skepticism about consumer demand among those who already owned iPhones. Actual sales were 15M units – 14% of iPhone owners at the time. Given even higher numbers for claimed purchase intention among US consumers surveyed, Morgan Stanley believes that 10% of owners of the iPhone 5 and up is a conservative estimate.
One big unknown at present is just how long ‘calendar year 2015’ will be in terms of Apple Watch availability. While a February launch had been predicted, Apple has so far only said ‘early 2015‘ while a leaked comment by retail head Angela Ahrendts said that the launch would be in “the spring.”
Via Business Insider
